Football: WEEK 5 2009 PICKS

WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
by Justin Henry

Today, I would like to preach "patience".

The Browns fans need to be patient with Eric Mangini while he benches a superstar quarterback and trades away one of his best offensive weapons, both of whom were floundering under his Gestapo-like rule. Raiders fans need to be patient with JaMarcus Russell, because sooner or later, he'll get that completion percentage to about 45%, and you'll be sorry you ever doubted him. Tennessee fans, of course, need to demonstrate some form of patience for their 0-4 crew. Things will pick up sooner or later, right? I mean, don't you feel secure in knowing that if the mighty Kerry Collins should continue his unexpected stumble, that Vince Young is right there to pick up the pieces?

Patience. Week five isn't even here yet. It can only get better.

Right?

Right.

Speaking of patience, this week's theme: The Big Lebowski. Who better than "The Dude" to teach us to remain calm under duress? Look at the mess he was involved in with the nihilists, Jackie Treehorn, and having to keep Walter from going to jail. Did he spaz? Not too often.

So let's abide. Roll week five.

LAST WEEK: 11-3

Cincinnati at Baltimore
“You mark that frame an 8, and you're entering a world of pain.” – Walter Sobchak (John Goodman)
I love the sense of martial law that both teams bring. Baltimore has the more reputable defense, evidenced by years of carrying the team. Cincinnati is coming into their own, building a D with some vets like Tank Johnson, Roy Williams, and a scary rookie in Rey Maualuga. Sure, they’re only 17th in total defense, but it’s a far cry from recent seasons. With the new lease on life, I think we see a bit of an upset here. Carson Palmer’s back, and I think he’ll surprise the Ravens. As well as many prognosticators who saw them bottom-lining the AFC North.
MY PICK: Cincinnati 14, Baltimore 13

Oakland at New York Giants
“Obviously you're not a golfer.” – Jeffrey “The Dude” Lebowski (Jeff Bridges)
I’m not commenting on The Dude’s quick witted line, but rather the idea of golf. When you’re the Raiders, you can book your tee times for January in advance. Like, in November. This game? Even without Eli (maybe), they’re still going to crush the worst offense in the league (definitely).
MY PICK: New York 31, Oakland 7

Dallas at Kansas City
“Strong men also cry... strong men also cry.” – The Big Lebowski (Dave Huddleston)
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling Tony Romo strong. But his tears are an endless source of comedy. That last drive against Denver was a microcosm of a typical Dallas season: look inexplicably strong for a while, fall apart at the end. If they don’t win this week….well, I have no idea.
MY PICK: Dallas 30, Kansas City 10

Washington at Carolina
“Well maybe you and me could pool our resources, you know, trade information? Professional courtesy? Compeers, you know?” – Da Fino (Jon Polito)
Jim Zorn and John Fox could both use someone to offer up special services in order to get their seasons straight. Neither seems to have control of their team to any degree, with Zorn a freak-out artist and Fox clinging to his beer truck buddy in Jake Delhomme. The only difference? Carolina had a week to rest. They get the nod.
MY PICK: Carolina 17, Washington 10

Minnesota at St. Louis
“My father's weakness is vanity, hence the slut.” – Maude Lebowski (Julianne Moore)
Brett Favre is vain, especially for a southern boy. But hey, he’s 4-0, right? A lot of that is on the running game, as well as the defensive line from Hell, so it’s not like Favre has had to dig deep to save the day. Safe passes are the order for as long as nobody can stop Adrian Peterson. Don’t look for it to happen this week, either.
MY PICK: Minnesota 35, St. Louis 7

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
“I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.” – Walter Sobchak (John Goodman)
Does Tampa Bay even have a system? 27 in offense, 31 in defense, and quarterback controversy featuring three players who clearly aren’t going to the Pro Bowl, unless swine flu runs rampant on most of the league. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are back, but why bother? I think Michael Vick with three Doberman pinschers latched to his calves can break a couple on the Bucs.
MY PICK: Philadelphia 28, Tampa Bay 10

Pittsburgh at Detroit
“No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of.” – Walter Sobchak (John Goodman)
Detroit was barking after they edged out Washington to break their futility streak. A week later, they were back in a familiar place, getting shellacked by Chicago after a valiant fight early. I doubt Pittsburgh will be terribly afraid of Detroit, unless Larry Foote knows Ben Roethlisberger’s mortal flaws. Speaking of mortal, Matthew Stafford’s knee isn’t 100%. Detroit never was 100% themselves, but this lessens their chances of the upset.
MY PICK: Pittsburgh 31, Detroit 14

Cleveland at Buffalo
“That rug really tied the room together.” – Jeffrey “The Dude” Lebowski (Jeff Bridges)
Braylon Edwards to the Jets. A case can be made that he was the star of that offense, especially with Kellen Winslow shipped away and Jamal Lewis crumbling. But until Jerome Harrison fully emerges, they’re below average with even less of a passing game. A friend of mine gobbled up Buffalo’s defense (yes, BUFFALO’S defense) in my fantasy league. There’s a reason. Get ‘cher popcorn ready!
MY PICK: Buffalo 24, Cleveland 7

Atlanta at San Francisco
“You want a toe? I can get you a toe, believe me. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it, believe me.” – Walter Sobchak (John Goodman)
Every time I think of Mike Singletary, I envision someone who could very possibly be involved in criminal activity, but you wouldn’t have the guts to ask him outright. Atlanta, in my opinion, looks vulnerable, even with the bye. Their defense doesn’t cover the pass well, and their offense is predicated on Michael Turner opening up the holes himself. Singletary’s D is only allowing less than 74 rushing yards per game. Stop Turner, stop the Falcons. Like cutting the head off of a snake.
MY PICK: San Francisco 17, Atlanta 13

Houston at Arizona
“Her life is in your hands, Dude.” – Brandt (Phillip Seymour Hoffman)
The only way to end the “Super Bowl Loser” curse is to have Arizona succeed this season. It’s up to Kurt Warner to come through and start hitting his targets better. He can’t complain, he has two of the best in the game. Is this Larry Fitzgerald’s Madden Curse? I think for the ten years or so that Madden himself was the cover boy, the curse was Pat Summerall getting 8% worse on commentary each year. But back to the point at hand, Warner had a week off to put up with Brenda’s nagging. That alone should fuel his religious rage, Houston’s offensive power be damned.
MY PICK: Arizona 34, Houston 24

New England at Denver
“Donny, you're out of your element!” – Walter Sobchak (John Goodman)
In the spring time, we all lined this quote up for Josh McDaniels. Right now, he’s laughing his pre-pubescent face off at the world. 4-0 with Kyle Orton? Granted, the revamped defense and the Buckhalter/Moreno onslaught that nets 148 yards a game are the cause, but let’s give the man his due. That said, when Tom Brady’s on a roll, he’s on a roll. The Pats are feeling good after taking down Atlanta and Baltimore, and when the momentum wave starts, Orton and McDaniels may be in over their head.
MY PICK: New England 20, Denver 13

Jacksonville at Seattle
“The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that. It's good knowin' he's out there. The Dude. Takin' 'er easy for all us sinners. Shoosh. I sure hope he makes the finals.” – The Stranger (Sam Elliott)
The Jags have a lot of stock in Maurice Jones-Drew. Also, the sky is blue. With all their hopes on his meaty frame, he’s carried them to two stunning victories thus far, at least in my eyes. It won’t be so stunning when he steps all over a sinking (Space City) ship.
MY PICK: Jacksonville 27, Seattle 14

Indianapolis at Tennessee
“He believes the culprits might be the very people who, uh, soiled your rug, and you are in a unique position to confirm or disconfirm that suspicion.”- Brandt (Phillip Seymour Hoffman)
The Dude was in disbelief that he found himself in such a predicament. The Titans definitely can’t believe they went from home field a year ago to 0-4. What happened? Kerry Collins got old. They’re not planning for tomorrow. It’s like a bizarre transition year, but after the heights they saw a year ago? But guess what? I think this is the week they do something about it. Prime time against Peyton Manning is a VERY risky bet, but I have a feeling that Chris Johnson makes the plays himself. Call it a hunch.
MY PICK: Tennessee 30, Indianapolis 28

New York Jets at Miami
“Start talking and talk fast you lousy bum.” – The Big Lebowski (Dave Huddleston)
I don’t think Tony Sparano enjoys explaining to Bill Parcells why the 2009 Dolphins are different fish from the 2008 Dolphins. That team that won the division is gone, along with Chad Pennington’s shoulder. The win over Buffalo showed promise from Chad Henne, but what’s that? Could that be Rex Ryan’s defense on the horizon? Unlike the ESPN commercials, I don’t believe Mr. Henne is living for Monday.
MY PICK: New York 27, Miami 10

When he isn’t watching WWE, TNA, or his beloved Philadelphia Eagles and Phillies, Justin Henry can be found writing. It is his passion as well as his goal in life to become a well-regarded columnist or author. He tweets at http://twitter.com/mindofjrhsports and facebooks himself at http://www.facebook.com/notoriousjrh.